May is over-pacing at 120% — but the composition matters more than the headline. Shopify is at 191% of its pacing target and has already delivered 86% of its full-month forecast at day 15; Amazon sits at 92% of pacing and 43% of forecast. Meanwhile spend is only 35% deployed while blended ROI runs 7.50:1 against a 5.7–6.2:1 plan — the month is beating plan on efficiency, not on budget. Both the risk and the opportunity are on the Amazon line.
Investigate$656.6K needed in 16 days
Amazon is behind its own month. $488.5K delivered of a $1,145.1K forecast (43%) at 48% elapsed. Hitting plan needs a daily run-rate ~26% above what it has managed so far — either the forecast is hot, or the back-half push starts now.
ActionConfirm the back-half promo / DSP plan this week.
Act~$42K spend behind straight-line
Budget is the constraint, not efficiency. $108.4K spent against a $313.5K target — 35% deployed at 48% of the month. With ROI at 7.50:1 versus a 5.7–6.2:1 target, unspent budget is unbought revenue.
ActionPoint incremental spend at Amazon, where the gap is.
Re-forecastShopify tracking ~178% of plan
Shopify will beat its forecast by a wide margin. $394.2K booked against a $456.6K month plan by day 15 — current run-rate lands near $815K. Update the forecast and confirm inventory cover before the plan number misleads anyone.
ActionRe-forecast May and check stock for the back half.
✦ Commentary generated automatically from the figures on this page · reviewed before send
Total Spend YTD
$675,294
Jan–Apr 2026
↑ +18% vs 2025
Total Revenue YTD
$5,063,501
Jan–Apr 2026
↑ +25% vs 2025
Blended ROI
7.50:1
Target 5.7–6.2:1
↑ +11% vs 2025
Shopify ROI
7.18:1
Target ≥ 4:1
↑ +49% vs 2025
Amazon ROI
7.82:1
Target 8–10:1
↓ −14% vs 2025
May Forecast
$1,601,677
Sh $457K + Am $1.15M
Day 15 of 31
Revenue Trend — 2026 YTD vs 2025 Prior Year
Monthly Revenue by Channel
Exact code output · Jan–Apr closed, May = partial day 15
Shopify 2026
Amazon 2026
Shopify 2025
Amazon 2025
Cumulative YTD Revenue
Running total 2026 vs 2025 · YoY gap at Apr: +$1.27M
2026 YTD
2025 YTD
Channel Revenue Split — Grouped Bar (2026 vs 2025)
Jan–Apr · exact code output numbers
Shopify 2026
Amazon 2026
Shopify 2025
Amazon 2025
Monthly ROI Trend
Shopify · Amazon · Blended — Jan–Apr with target lines
Shopify ROI
Amazon ROI
Blended ROI
Spend vs Revenue — Bubble Chart
Each bubble = one month · size = revenue · 2026 vs 2025
Shopify 2026
Amazon 2026
Cumulative Revenue vs Pacing Target — Month over Month
Cumulative Actual Revenue vs Cumulative Pacing Target
Pacing = Monthly Forecast × Σ seasonality weights · Green fill = ahead · Red fill = behind
Actual Cumulative
Pacing Target Cumulative
Ahead of pacing
Behind pacing
Full Month Forecast
Jan
$630K
vs pacing +37%
Feb Cumul.
$1.53M
vs pacing +52%
Mar Cumul.
$3.10M
vs pacing +65%
Apr Cumul.
$5.06M
vs pacing +58%
May (Day 15)
$5.95M
pacing at 120%
Month-over-Month Revenue Growth vs Pacing Gap %
ROI Performance vs Target Bands
Shopify
7.18:1
Target floor: 4:1 · ON TARGET
04:1 min10:1
2026
7.18:1
2025
4.82:1
YoY Δ
+49%
Amazon (US + CA)
7.82:1
Target band: 8–10:1 · BELOW BAND
08:1 band10:1
2026
7.82:1
2025
9.14:1
YoY Δ
−14%
Total Ecom (Blended)
7.50:1
Target band: 5.7–6.2:1 · ABOVE BAND
05.7 · 6.210:1
2026
7.50:1
2025
6.73:1
YoY Δ
+11%
ROI Heatmap — by Month × Channel
Monthly ROI Heatmap
Green = on/above target · Amber = approaching · Red = below
Monthly Performance Detail
Shopify — All SKUs incl. flagship launch
4:1 Floor
Month
Spend
Tgt Spend
Revenue
Rev Tgt
vs Tgt
Pacing
ROI
Jan 2026
$56,929
$58,964
$177,898
$292,605
−39%
—
3.12:1
Feb 2026
$88,063
$67,950
$470,082
$315,692
+49%
—
5.34:1
Mar 2026
$101,572
$128,309
$895,769
$690,248
+30%
—
8.82:1
Apr 2026
$91,827
$165,876
$884,597
$1,006,806
−12%
—
9.63:1
May 2026 ←
$52,905
$177,520
$394,217
$456,572
+86%
191%
7.45:1
YTD Jan–Apr
$338,391
$421,099
$2,428,345
$2,305,351
+5%
—
7.18:1
Amazon US + Canada
8–10:1 Band
Month
Spend
Tgt Spend
Revenue
Rev Tgt
vs Tgt
Pacing
ROI
Jan 2026
$56,935
$55,507
$452,464
$420,709
+8%
—
7.95:1
Feb 2026
$60,045
$28,016
$433,049
$482,971
−10%
—
7.21:1
Mar 2026
$88,982
$57,690
$671,586
$869,625
−23%
—
7.55:1
Apr 2026
$130,942
$134,619
$1,078,057
$1,066,059
+1%
—
8.23:1
May 2026 ←
$55,472
$135,975
$488,529
$1,145,105
−57%
92%
8.81:1
YTD Jan–Apr
$336,903
$275,832
$2,635,156
$2,839,364
−7%
—
7.82:1
Total Ecom Rollup — YTD Jan–Apr 2026
Exact PDF output · US $2,498,677 + CA $136,479
Channel
YTD Spend
YTD Revenue
YTD ROI
Target
Status
Shopify
$338,391
$2,428,345
7.18:1
4:1
ON TARGET
Amazon (US+CA)
$336,903
$2,635,156
7.82:1
8–10:1
BELOW BAND
Total Ecom
$675,294
$5,063,501
7.50:1
5.7–6.2:1
ABOVE TARGET
Shopify Performance — Jan–May 2026
Shopify Revenue by Month
2026 actual vs 2025
Shopify ROI Trend
Monthly ROI vs 4:1 floor
Shopify Spend vs Target
Actual vs target spend
Shopify Full Detail
4:1 Floor
Month
Spend
Tgt Spend
Util%
Revenue
Rev Tgt
vs Tgt
Pac Target
Pac%
ROI
Status
Jan
$56,929
$58,964
97%
$177,898
$292,605
−39%
—
—
3.12:1
BELOW
Feb
$88,063
$67,950
130%
$470,082
$315,692
+49%
—
—
5.34:1
ON TARGET
Mar
$101,572
$128,309
79%
$895,769
$690,248
+30%
—
—
8.82:1
ON TARGET
Apr
$91,827
$165,876
55%
$884,597
$1,006,806
−12%
—
—
9.63:1
ON TARGET
May ←
$52,905
$177,520
30%
$394,217
$456,572
+86%
$206,371
191%
7.45:1
OVER-PACING
YTD
$338,391
$421,099
80%
$2,428,345
$2,305,351
+5%
—
—
7.18:1
ON TARGET
Amazon Performance — US + Canada · Jan–May 2026
Amazon Revenue by Month
WB1 organic Total Sales 2026 vs 2025
Amazon ROI Trend
Monthly ROI vs 8–10:1 band
US vs Canada Split
YTD revenue by storefront
Amazon Full Detail — US + Canada
8–10:1 Band
Month
Spend
Tgt Spend
Util%
Revenue
Rev Tgt
vs Tgt
Pac Target
Pac%
ROI
Status
Jan
$56,935
$55,507
103%
$452,464
$420,709
+8%
—
—
7.95:1
BELOW BAND
Feb
$60,045
$28,016
214%
$433,049
$482,971
−10%
—
—
7.21:1
BELOW BAND
Mar
$88,982
$57,690
154%
$671,586
$869,625
−23%
—
—
7.55:1
BELOW BAND
Apr
$130,942
$134,619
97%
$1,078,057
$1,066,059
+1%
—
—
8.23:1
IN BAND
May ←
$55,472
$135,975
41%
$488,529
$1,145,105
−57%
$528,351
92%
8.81:1
IN PROGRESS
YTD
$336,903
$275,832
122%
$2,635,156
$2,839,364
−7%
—
—
7.82:1
BELOW BAND
Forward Outlook — WB2 Current Fcst units × Price Matrix
May 2026
Efficient Mode
Shopify Forecast$456,572
Amazon Forecast$1,145,105
Total$1,601,677
Shopify Spend$114,143
Amazon Spend$114,510
Plan ROI7.00:1
Jun 2026
Aggressive Mode
Shopify Forecast$3,057,064
Amazon Forecast$1,993,322
Total$5,050,387
Shopify Spend$764,266
Amazon Spend$249,165
Plan ROI4.98:1
Jul 2026
Efficient Mode
Shopify Forecast$703,926
Amazon Forecast$1,713,972
Total$2,417,898
Shopify Spend$175,982
Amazon Spend$171,397
Plan ROI6.96:1
3-Month Revenue Forecast — Shopify vs Amazon
WB2 Current Fcst units × Price Matrix for May, Jun, Jul 2026